Tuesday 15th October, 2024
President Anura Kumara Dissanayake told the NPP candidates contesting the upcoming general election some home truths, at a meeting, over the weekend. Reminding them of the fate that had befallen the Rajapaksa regimes in 2015 and 2022, he said both President Mahinda Rajapaksa and President Gotabaya Rajapaksa had mustered two-thirds majorities in Parliament after winning general elections in 2010 and 2020, respectively, but they had become hugely unpopular soon afterwards and failed to retain power. Therefore, a government had to be concerned not only about its numerical strength but also about the quality of its MPs, he said, stressing the need to cleanse the legislature, bring about a new political culture and restore public faith in the parliamentary process. One cannot but agree with him.
President Dissanayake also exhibited a touch of schadenfreude or perverse pleasure when he spoke of the plight of the contenders he had beaten in last month’s presidential contest. He said all that they could do now was to try to form a strong Opposition. He should not be so exultant at the plight of the Opposition; in this country, a strong Opposition is always good for the political health of a government in power, paradoxical as it may sound.
Sri Lankan political leaders have earned notoriety for letting power get the better of them when they do not see the Opposition in their rearview mirrors. All governments that obtained steamroller majorities abused them to their heart’s content and ruined the country as well as their electoral prospects. The SLFP-led United Front government extended the term of Parliament by two years, in 1975, with the help of its two-thirds majority, and suffered a crushing defeat in the general election that followed. The UNP, which obtained a five-sixths majority in Parliament in 1977, debilitated democracy as never before and plunged the country into a bloodbath. The SLFP-led UPFA government under Mahinda Rajapaksa’s presidency abused its two-thirds majority in every conceivable manner from 2010 to 2015. The two-thirds majority of the Gotabaya Rajapaksa government also became a curse for the country. Hence the need for a robust Opposition to act as an effective countervailing force against any government.
There is no guarantee that the NPP leaders will not take leave of their senses, like their predecessors, in case of being able to secure a huge parliamentary majority next month. It is popularly said in this country that when one has power, one has no brains and when one has brains one has no power—’bale thiyanakota mole ne, mole thiyankota bale ne’. Some NPP heavyweights are already exuding arrogance as evident from their rhetoric and bragging.
What propelled the JVP/NPP to power was a rogue wave of anti-politics, which rose owing to the people’s distrust in traditional politics and political institutions including Parliament. A similar phenomenon occurred in 2019, when pent-up public resentment found expression in a massive protest vote which benefited the SLPP.
There is a tide in the affairs of political parties as in people’s lives; when it is taken at the flood, it leads on to fortune, as Brutus says in Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar. ‘Taking the current when it serves’ is the name of the game in politics, but it could be a risky venture, and one should not lose sight of the fact that Brutus, who utters those memorable words, runs on his own sword. Gotabaya, who took the tide at the flood in 2019 had to hightail it to escape from a fearsome mob in close pursuit. As for the NPP, only its National List nominee Sugath Thilakaratne may be safe in case of an uprising, for he is a former champion runner.
The JVP/NPP let the genie of anti-politics out of the bottle in 2022, when it hijacked a people’s protest campaign and tried to march on Parliament. The police and the military succeeded in holding mobs at bay, and saving democracy. President Ranil Wickremesinghe managed to keep the situation under control thereafter although his modus operandi attracted much criticism. The genie is still at large. This is a cause for serious concern.
When the Gotabaya government failed, there was a formidable democratic alternative, and the country therefore did not descend into anarchy. Today, the mainstream Opposition is in disarray. If the JVP/NPP administration fails to fulfil its pledges, undertakes disastrous experiments on the economic front and makes the economy nosedive, causing unbearable hardships to the public, it will be hoist with its own petard; it will become a victim of the very forces it unleashed to capture state power.
If another popular uprising ever occurs—absit omen—it will be far worse than the first one, like the second wave of the Boxing Day tsunami. Would there be a democratic alternative to the NPP in such an eventuality?
Sri Lankan democracy has rocked and swayed on numerous occasions but retained its balance like a Logan Stone. However, whether it will be able to absorb the shock of another uprising is the question. There is a pressing need for the Sri Lankan political leaders as well as the public to act responsibly, learning from the experience of the countries such Pakistan and Bangladesh, where anti-political movements led to interruptions in the civilian rule.
